In the world of cinema, predicting Oscar winners has always been a combination of art and science. However, there may be an unexpected factor that holds the key - coffee. This year, we are using the presence of coffee on screen to forecast the winner of the 2024 Best Picture award, offering a unique analysis that could potentially change the way we perceive Oscar predictions.
How Coffee could Predict the OSCARS 2024 Best Picture Winner
Key Findings
Each coffee scene boosts a film's Oscar chances by 26.6%.
Each Starbucks feature boosts a movie's Oscar chances by 20.3%.
Coffee appears in one-third of Oscar winners.
The ideal number of coffee features for a film to win an Oscar is 8.
Based on the number of coffee appearances, we predict that
the winner of Best Picture this year will be Killers of the Flower Moon.
How Did We Do?
We collected the films with coffee features and the number of coffee scenes in each film by scraping productplacementblog.com
We then checked if these films won any Oscars by scraping data from IMDB between 2002 and 2022. This information was then used to calculate the impact of coffee on a film's chances of winning an Oscar and predict the Best Picture winner for this year. The detailed methodology is outlined below.
How Coffee is Featured
in Oscar-winning Films
Coffee appears in
33% of Oscar winners
2022 marks the year in which coffee appears most frequently in Oscar-winning films, with 1202 times.
Coffee is present in 33% of all Oscar-winning films, highlighting its importance in the film industry. In 2022, coffee made the most frequent appearances in Oscar-winning films, with a total of 1202 times. However, despite this high number, only 22.2% of Oscar-winning films featured coffee, which is lower compared to years with fewer coffee appearances. In 2011, coffee was featured in 94% of Oscar winners, the highest percentage among the years examined. The table below shows the breakdown of coffee scenes in Oscar-winning films from 2002 to 2022:
Brewing Success: How Coffee
Increases Oscar-winning Chances
To calculate the impact of coffee scenes on a film's chances of winning an Oscar, we applied the Linear Regression model. We used two pieces of data:
Linear Regression model
The number of
times coffee
appeared in a film
Whether or not
that film won
an Oscar
The result is the equation: Y = 0.2652X + 0.838, which indicates:
Each additional coffee scene increases a movie's chances of winning an Oscar by 26.52%
We also applied the same method to determine the effect of specific coffee brands on a film's chances of winning an Oscar. The top 10 coffee brands with the strongest impact are listed below, with Starbucks having the highest effect.
The Top 10 coffee brands with the strongest impact on
Starbucks has the highest impact on the chances of a movie winning an award. A movie can have 20.3% more chances to win an Oscar if it has one more scene featuring Starbucks. Folgers and Hilltop are close behind, with 19.3% and 18.1%, respectively.
Using Coffee to Predict
2024 Oscar Best Picture Winner
We used the Logistics Regression model to predict if a Best Picture nominee would win based on the number of coffee scenes in the film. Our data input into the model was:
Using Logistics Regression, we will have a threshold, which we can deem an "ideal" number of coffee scenes a film should have to win an Oscar. In this case:
The ideal number of coffee features for a film to win an Oscar is eight.
The closer the number of coffee scenes is to the threshold, the higher the probability of winning Best Picture. With that in mind, we have:
Number of Coffee Scenes
And now, for the grand espresso revelation! Drumroll, please... The Oscar for Best Picture, as per our caffeinated crystal ball, is none other than "Killers of the Flower Moon"! Mark your calendars for March 10th, folks. Will our coffee-powered prophecy percolate to perfection, or will it need a bit more brewing? Stay tuned to find out if our prediction is as spot-on as a perfectly poured latte!
Our Thoughts
In conclusion, while achieving Oscar success involves multiple factors, the presence of coffee in films may be a more significant predictor than previously thought. So, as we await the envelope's opening, let's remember: sometimes, the best predictor of success might just be a simple cup of coffee.
